Crypto-Contagion: A Quantile-Based Analysis Between Green–Non-Green Emerging Cryptocurrencies and Energy Markets

Abstract

Financial contagion, risk transmission, and interconnectedness have come into focus due to the rapid growth of cryptocurrency markets and their increased connection to global energy markets. Given the existence of crypto contagion effects among the emerging cryptocurrencies, this study employs a quantile-based analytical framework to examine the contagion impact of Green and Non-Green emerging cryptocurrencies on energy markets. The study attempts to analyze the degree of connectedness and spillover effects under different market conditions as well as the resilience of Green cryptocurrencies against energy market shocks, in comparison with Non-Green cryptocurrencies. Daily data is used from 2018 to 2025 for various selected Green cryptocurrencies (Cardano, Stellar), Non-Green cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Monero), and variables of the major energy markets (WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, Natural Gas). The study uses the Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model and quantile connectedness framework to account for the asymmetric nature of the market and tail-risk phenomena. The results highlight the strong interdependence among cryptocurrencies and energy markets, particularly under extreme market conditions. The results suggest that the Non-Green cryptocurrencies have relatively higher linkages with the energy markets as they rely on energy intensive mechanisms, while the Green cryptocurrencies have comparatively different spillover effects. In addition, the study finds that connectivity is non-linear and not necessarily symmetrical, with risk flow building up on both the down and up sides of the market. The results provide meaningful insights to investors, portfolio managers, financial planners, policymakers, and regulators for understanding systemic risk, optimizing their diversification strategies, and ensuring financial and environmental sustainability.

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