Remote Sensing-Driven Agricultural Water Management: An Integrated Economic Framework for Optimizing Irrigation Efficiency, Crop Productivity, Farm Profitability and Climate Resilience

Abstract

Increasing water scarcity, climate variability, and irrigation costs threaten agricultural productivity and farm profitability. This study develops a remote sensing-driven economic framework to optimize irrigation efficiency, crop yield, net returns, and climate resilience. The analysis covers 120 farms and 8,400 hectares of wheat, maize, and cotton during 2022–2025. It integrates 1,260 cloud-screened satellite observations with weather records, soil measurements, irrigation logs, crop yields, production costs, and farm-gate prices. Satellite-derived vegetation indices, land surface temperature, and evapotranspiration estimates are used to identify field-level water stress and estimate crop irrigation requirements. These indicators are incorporated into a multi-objective optimization model that evaluates alternative irrigation schedules according to water consumption, expected yield, pumping costs, and net farm returns. The schedules are assessed under normal conditions and simulated drought and heat-stress scenarios. Compared with conventional farm irrigation practices, the optimized schedules reduce irrigation water withdrawals by 18.6% and increase average crop yield by 6.2%. Water productivity increases from 1.34 to 1.71 kg per cubic metre, while average net farm returns rise by 11.8% after accounting for pumping and other production costs. Under the drought scenario, estimated yield losses are 8.4% with optimized scheduling, compared with 15.7% under conventional practice. Sensitivity analysis identifies pumping costs and seasonal water availability as major determinants of the economically preferred schedule. Responses also vary across crops and soil conditions, demonstrating the value of field-specific recommendations over uniform changes in irrigation supply. The findings indicate that combining satellite-derived crop indicators with farm-level economic information can improve the allocation of scarce irrigation water while supporting production and income. The framework makes trade-offs among water savings, yield, operating costs, and climate resilience explicit, enabling farmers and irrigation managers to compare feasible management options. Its use in other agricultural regions will require calibration to local crop responses, water-delivery systems, prices, and climate conditions. This integrated approach offers a basis for irrigation planning that considers both resource efficiency and the financial viability of farming under growing environmental pressure.

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