Strategic Restructuring of China’s Industrial Supply Chains Under the National 15th Five-Year Plan: An Empirical Assessment of Digital Transformation, Economic Resilience, and Sustainable Development

Abstract

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) establishes a strategic framework for accelerating industrial modernization, strengthening supply chain security, advancing digital transformation, and promoting sustainable economic development. This study empirically investigates the influence of digital transformation on industrial supply chain restructuring, economic resilience, and environmental sustainability across China’s manufacturing sector. The research employs a longitudinal dataset comprising 9,600 firm-year observations from 1,200 manufacturing enterprises distributed across 30 provincial-level regions during 2018–2025. Data were integrated from enterprise financial reports, industrial production statistics, digital technology adoption records, logistics performance indicators, and environmental disclosures. A comprehensive analytical framework incorporating entropy-weighted composite indices, two-way fixed-effects panel regression, mediation analysis, heterogeneity assessment, and robustness testing was developed to evaluate relationships among digital transformation, industrial resilience, and sustainable development. Empirical results indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in digital transformation is associated with a 0.18-standard-deviation improvement in supply chain resilience and a 0.14-standard-deviation enhancement in sustainability performance. Manufacturing enterprises with diversified domestic supplier networks experienced 11.6% lower disruption-related production losses, while digitally advanced firms achieved 8.9% lower carbon emissions per unit of industrial output compared with less digitally integrated enterprises. Mediation analysis reveals that improved supply chain visibility accounts for approximately 28% of the relationship between digital transformation and industrial resilience. Heterogeneity analysis further demonstrates stronger associations among high-technology manufacturing enterprises and firms located in regions possessing advanced digital infrastructure. Robustness assessments using alternative indicator specifications and lagged explanatory variables support the stability of the estimated relationships. These findings emphasize the importance of intelligent manufacturing systems, supplier diversification, integrated industrial data platforms, and green technological innovation in strengthening industrial competitiveness. The study provides an evidence-based analytical foundation for aligning China’s industrial restructuring priorities with the 15th Five-Year Plan, offering policy recommendations for enhancing technological self-reliance, mitigating supply chain disruptions, improving resource efficiency, and supporting coordinated, resilient, and environmentally sustainable industrial development across diverse manufacturing sectors and regional economic systems.

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