Community-Based Early Warning and Evacuation Planning Framework for Coastal Cyclone Risk Reduction

Abstract

Coastal cyclones report 40% of all disaster related mortality worldwide and the risk of mortality increases 2.3 times if the warning lead time is less than 12 hours and the evacuation response is less than 50%. To this end a Community Based Early Warning and Evacuation Planning Framework (CEWEP) was developed and pilot tested in 8 coastal districts (with a population of 1.6 million) across cyclone prone areas in Cambodia. CEWEP combines the individual capabilities of localized hazard forecasting, community vulnerability mapping, participatory evacuation route planning, and pre-positioned shelter networks. Implementation results indicate that warning dissemination time was reduced by an average of 4.8 hours to 1.8 hours and the level of trust in warnings for communities grow by 47.1%. The rate of evacuation compliance increased from 38.7% to 83.9%, which is a 116.8% increase, resulting in a 54.6% decrease in the number of projected deaths in simulated Category-4 events. This framework resulted 31.2% in reduction of average evacuation time per household (optimized allocation of routes) and 43.5% in improvement of shelter availability (counting of shelter accessibility). Post-event recovery surveys show that households using CEWEP suffered only 39% asset losses and regained livelihood activities 2.1 times quicker as compared to the control households. A cost-effectiveness analysis shows a benefit-cost ratio of 5.40 to 1 or $5.40 savings per $1 spent. The model continued to have an acceptable performance within the limits of the forecast error of ±30%, such that the changes in the risk outcome ranged by just 8.7%. Through its emphasis on community involvement, CEWEP provides a clear example of how neighbourhood planning and social stakeholder preparedness can make a significant contribution to the outcomes of cyclone disaster management and alleviate the vulnerability of the society in the high-risk coastal areas.

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