Depreciation Patterns in the UAE Used Car Market: Evidence from Dubizzle Listings

Abstract

Understanding how used vehicles lose value over time is important for buyers, sellers, and dealers, yet the depreciation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) used car market remains under-studied using real listing data. This study examined depreciation patterns across 400 Dubizzle listings all drawn from four mainstream brands: Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, and Mitsubishi.  Python (pandas, NumPy, statsmodels) with Google Collab was used for analysis and the code went through descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and OLS multiple regression. The approach was quantitative and cross-sectional, and the data were run through using Pearson correlation and OLS multiple regression, with price being the outcome and age, mileage, and brand as the predictors. The model showed a significant relationship (F = 27.16, p < .001) and it explained 25.6% of the variation in price (R² = .256). Age was shown to be the strongest predictor by far, as with each additional year lowering the asking price by about AED 4,263. Mileage moved in the expected direction but did not come out to be very significant (p = .077), which can come down to how closely it tracks age (r = .639). Brand differences were large. Compared to Toyota, Nissan was AED 31,070 cheaper, Hyundai AED 41,330 cheaper, and Mitsubishi AED 47,130 cheaper. Depreciation worked out to about 3.5% a year which is far below the 20% accounting benchmark. So, a five-year-old car still holds over 80% of its original value. For buyers: age matters most, then brand. Toyota holds value best; Mitsubishi saves you the most upfront.

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